First Base By Trade

For 2011, Carlos Pena is the Cubs’ first baseman. For 2011, the Cubs are fine at first. In 2012 and beyond the situation becomes murkier. Josh Vitters and Max Ramirez have been mentioned, but Vitters still projects as the third baseman of the future and there are no guarantees that Ramirez can play first or hold an everyday job. But the Cubs are very deep in right handed pitching, particularly starting pitching, and could potentially flip some of those pitchers into a young, nearly ready first base prospect from another organization. I’ve looked around baseball and identified three players that might be available to the Cubs in the right deal.

First of all, you’ll notice that none of these players are in the NL Central. It is somewhat uncommon that high level prospects are traded inside the division so I didn’t even look at the other NL Central teams. These players may not even be available, but they are in a situation that I think would make them expendable for their parent club. In no particular order, here we go.

Lucas Duda, New York Mets.

Duda is buried behind Ike Davis at first and isn’t likely to break into the Mets outfield on a regular basis. A strong left handed slugger, Duda was ranked as the Mets’ 7th best prospect by Baseball America. He shows pretty decent power and does not strike out that much. He basically has no speed, and that forces him to first base defensively. Fortunately, he’s not a bad first baseman so long as you aren’t expecting a Gold Glover. Duda will start 2011 either in AAA or on the bench for the Mets.

The Mets don’t have room for him, but he’s on their 40 man roster and his arbitration clock has started. What the Mets do need is pitching. If the Cubs offered Casey Coleman, Jay Jackson, or Randy Wells, the Mets would probably listen. It would take more work by both sides to get a deal done, but the two teams appear to match up pretty well.

Clint Robinson, Kansas City Royals.

The Royals have a great first base prospect by the name of Hosmer, ranked number 1 in the system by Baseball America. Clint Robinson, ranked 28th, doesn’t stand much of a chance of overtaking Hosmer. Robinson, another strong lefty slugger, wasn’t drafted until the 25th round despite a solid college campaign. Since he was drafted all he’s done is hit. Moving up the Royals system methodically, he consistently hits near .300 and slugs near .500. His power is unmistakable if not exceptional, and like Duda he keeps a lid on the strikeouts. He should begin 2011 at AAA.

Unfortunately, he’s even worse of a fielder than Duda. While his bat seems destined for the majors, his glove may hold him back. That could work in the Cubs favor, however, as it should lower his asking price. The Royals might be willing to talk in exchange for one or two A level arms they could try to develop in their system or who could evolve into relievers in a year or two. For the Cubs, a trade for Robinson could be a low risk / high reward proposition that, at worst, could yield a future left handed power bat off the bench, and at best a pretty good offensive first baseman.

Lars Anderson, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox mailed a mountain of talent to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez, but Lars Anderson, ranked number 8 in the system, was not included in that trade. Another powerful left handed hitter, Anderson is definitely blocked both at first and in the outfield. He could eventually become a DH, but that typically isn’t a roll given to rookies who have little shot of winning a starting job on the field. Furthermore, since the Red Sox sent a number of very high quality prospects to the Padres, they would probably be open to a small infusion of talent from the Cubs system.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox farm system looks a lot like the Cubs farm system, lots of pitching and middle infielders. That said, they might bite for a package that included a mix of upper level pitching that could possibly help this year and lower level talent that could help in two or three years. Esmalin Caridad, Angel Guzman, Jay Jackson, and outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha might be names that would cause the Red Sox to sit up and listen (though it should not take more than two of those guys I think). A.J. Morris, just in from Washington, might be an attractive option for the Red Sox as well. This would almost certainly be the most expensive trade for the Cubs, but could also yield some fairly high rewards.

Of these three, my choice would to call up Kansas City and ask about Robinson. While he doesn’t have the highest ceiling, I like his offensive numbers. He would probably be the easiest to acquire, and with the possibility of signing someone like Prince Fielder after the season, it might not make much sense to trade a lot for a first baseman right now. There are certainly worse ways for him to learn to play first base than working alongside a Gold Glove like Pena in the spring and maybe watching him from the bench from mid-summer on.