Future of the Outfield

This week there were two good pieces of news about two players who could be in the Cubs outfield very soon. One of them you have already heard.. Matt Szczur signed with the Cubs and gave up his potential NFL career… and I’ll have a bit more on that after the break. The other bit of good news regarded Brett Jackson, further solidifying him a player to watch in the spring.

The signing of Matt Szczur for a total of $1.5 million is a great deal for a couple of reasons. First, it guarantees that one of the most exciting players the Cubs took in the 2010 draft will be in the Cubs farm system and not returning punts in the NFL. We’ve talked about Szczur before and his signing should not have come as a surprise to any of our readers. But what about that bonus he received? It cost the Cubs an extra million dollars to convince him to choose baseball over football. Was it worth it?

Well, consider that Baseball America stated that Szczur could easily have been a first round pick in the 2011 MLB draft had he not signed with anyone and returned to the draft. A $1.5 million signing bonus would in line with the Cubs could have expected to pay had they drafted Szczur between 11 and 29. It could have been much higher, maybe slightly lower, but $1.5 is right about what Szczur would have gotten as first round pick. In other words, that is a good signing for the Cubs. It wasn’t excessive, it wasn’t a major league contract, and it keeps a very good outfield prospect in the Cubs system.

Alongside Reggie Golden, drafted three rounds ahead of him, Matt Szczur will enter the lower minors as a key part of the Cubs potential future outfield.

Also in that future outfield picture, in high minors, is Brett Jackson. This week Jackson was named the sixth best outfield prospect in the minors by MLB.com’s Prospect Watch. That becomes more impressive when you consider that Jackson was just drafted in 2009.

When Fukudome or Byrd get traded during the summer, Jackson is the most likely beneficiary. It is not impossible, however, that Jackson pulls a Colvin and simply takes an outfield job in spring training. While his strikeout numbers are still high, his walk totals are very attractive and show a level of patience that will serve him well in the majors.

If we really want to speculate about improbabilities… and what’s the offseason for if not thinking about the improbable… Jackson could earn some spring consideration not only as the Cubs starting center fielder, but as their leadoff hitter as well. His walk totals result in a career OBP of .402. It is ridiculous to think he could perform that well in his first season in the majors, but .350 certainly isn’t impossible. That would put him in the same range as Marlon Byrd and Starlin Castro. With a good bat like Castro’s in the two slot, Jackson’s ability to draw a walk could translate into a higher OBP than we expect, and that would be useful at the top of the lineup. It isn’t likely, but it wouldn’t be the Cubs worst option either.