For weeks, it's felt like the fate of the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres were intertwined, so the two squaring off in the Wild Card Series makes sense. Unfortunately, a stumbling September saw the Cubs cough up home-field advantage, so the Padres will play host for the best-of-three series, starting Tuesday night at Petco Park.
Whichever team advances faces an NLDS date with the best team in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers, who won a franchise-record 103 regular-season games, bringing home another NL Central crown over the second-place Cubs by a staggering 14 games. But before we even think about looking ahead, here are two issues that could end Chicago's playoff run quickly and three reasons to believe they can get hot and make a run.
Two red flags Cubs must overcome have reared their head all season
Lack of a true ace atop the rotation
Jed Hoyer went out and acquired Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes at the trade deadline in hopes of bolstering the starting rotation down the stretch and heading into October. Holmes' brilliance faded after an impressive run of starts to open his time with the Cubs, and Gausman is battling an injury sustained in his last start. Matthew Boyd is capable of giving the team a chance to win, but there's nobody in this staff that you feel 100 percent confident in heading into a must-win affair.
Shaky bullpen is a major question
Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn seemed to be finding their form in the closing days of the regular season, which would be a desperately welcome turn of events, but there are a lot of questions in this bullpen. That pair, along with Ryan Rolison and Jacob Webb, probably represent much of the 'circle of trust'. Meanwhile, the Padres' bullpen features one shutdown option after another, offering a stark contrast between the two teams.
Cubs' playoff strengths are clear and could cover up their weaknesses
MLB's best offense must show up
Less-than-ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field and Fenway Park quieted the Cubs' offense in the final days of the regular season, but the bats came alive in Tampa Bay in a neutral-site game 162, offering hope heading into the MLB playoffs. NL MVP front-runner Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman pace the offense, but the supporting cast offers plenty to like, as well. Chicago scored more runs than any other team this year. They'll only go as far as their offense will carry them in the postseason.
Run prevention is the name of the game
Not only did Chicago score a lot of runs, but, by most measures, boasted an elite defensive group, as well. PCA is a Platinum Glove candidate in center field and Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson represent one of the best double-play tandems in the league. Even if Bregman is relegated to DH duties in the Wild Card Series, the Cubs are set up well with the leather and that could be a difference-maker in a three-game set.
Depth in the rotation could be huge
While I don't love the top-end quality of this rotation, the depth is a real strength. One way Craig Counsell could cover up his shaky bullpen is by piggybacking starters, reducing the number of innings the late-inning crew is responsible for covering. He's been creative all season long and there's no reason to believe that's about to change.
