10 years after World Series, Cubs dealing with championship-destroying pitching luck

The 2016 Chicago Cubs were the team of destiny, bringing a 108-year championship drought to a close. The young core of star position players was supported by a veteran pitching staff and beloved manager (Joe Maddon), requiring every ounce of talent to come back from 3-1 down in the World Series.

However, it sometimes gets lost just how good that pitching staff was. Sure, Kris Bryant's MVP campaign and Javier Báez's timely heroics are memorable, but the sturdiness supplied by the starting five is the reason the Cubs won 103 games in the first place.

That 2016 squad used just five starting pitchers all year long -- Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel, and John Lackey -- with six other relievers combining to make the 10 starts the rotation didn't cover. That combination of healthy and performance is nearly impossible to replicate, and a reminder of how far the 2026 version of the team has to go to be considered a true championship contender.

Comparing 2016 Cubs and 2026 Cubs' pitching staffs

Let's start with the basics. All five starters on the 2016 team made at least 29 starts and handled at least 165 innings. Heading into July, the current Cubs leader in both categories is Shota Imanaga (17 starts, 98 1/3 innings), and he is the only pitcher on track to reach those aforementioned thresholds in 2026.

The popularization of the "opener" skews these numbers a bit, but it's also worth pointing out that the 2026 Cubs have had more pitchers start a game (12) than their decade-old counterparts (11). It's incredible how healthy the championship team stayed, but it's also a tad ridiculous how bad the injury luck has been for the current roster.

And that's before we acknowledge the talent disparity between the two rotations. Whereas the 2026 Cubs' most frequent starting pitchers are Imanaga, Edward Cabrera, and Colin Rea, the 2016 North Siders featured Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks. Those three finished second, ninth and third, respectively, in NL Cy Young voting that season.

Of course, it's not as though Jed Hoyer tried to put such a meager collection of pitching talent together. Injuries to Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and even the rejuvenated Ben Brown have sapped so much quality from this year's starting five. Who knows where this team would be if even two of those pitchers had been fully healthy through the first three months of the season?

Alas, injuries are a part of the game, and the 2016 Cubs' luck in that regard is just further proof of how much needs to break right in order to win a World Series. Barring some miraculous recoveries, it seems the 2026 version may fall a few healthy pitchers short.

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