1 part of Shota Imanaga's game that will make or break his 2026 season

Shota Imanaga will not pitch for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic next month, instead working out in Mesa, dialing in his delivery after a rocky finish to the 2025 campaign.

After returning from a hamstring injury, Imanaga was wildly inconsistent and long balls plagued him at every turn. The left-hander coughed up 24 home runs in 17 starts and after a disastrous outing in the NLDS against Milwaukee, Craig Counsell opted to push his chips in on a full-blown bullpen game rather than trust Imanaga with the season on the line.

Then, this winter, after both sides turned down portions of the complicated contract he signed ahead of the 2024 season, the Cubs extended a qualifying offer to Imanaga - which he accepted - bringing him back into the fold in 2026. If he can return to form and deliver results comparable to his rookie campaign, when he pitched to a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings, this Chicago rotation takes a huge step forward.

Shota Imanaga's fastball will decide how impactful he is for the Cubs

So what's the thing he needs to fix? His fastball. Not only did he lose velocity on that pitch after returning from the IL, but its movement also sharply declined. The pitch went from a solidly above-average 112 Stuff+ to just 98 - and with the diminished heater came diminished results.

Getting Imanaga's fastball figured out is no doubt a top priority for pitching coach Tommy Hottovy this spring. Batters are always going to put the ball in the air against him. We knew that when he was coming over from Japan. But in his first year, he managed to keep it in the yard - last season, it was a very different story.

His offspeed and breaking stuff played well, but looking at Baseball Savant, his fastball value bottomed out. If he can make some adjustments (and his hamstring is back to 100 percent), that pitch should get back to playing well up in the zone. If not, the long ball could continue to be a major concern for Imanaga and the Cubs in 2026.