Chicago Cubs: Good things are coming in the second half

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WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 27: Jake Arrieta /

A history of good second halves for some Chicago Cubs’ players can give fans something to look forward to.

As the Chicago Cubs close the book on the first half of 2017, it is time to forget most of the things that have occurred since April. Yes, there have been some good moments, like Ian Happ making his major league debut, and proceeding to hit 13 home runs in the two months that followed.

Despite some minor wins along the way, the first half of 2017 has been a train wreck for the Cubs. The North Siders are currently 4 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and seven games back of the second Wild Card.

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The Cubs’ struggles this season cannot be traced to one singular thing, but rather a combination of poor performances. Currently, the Cubs’ offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. To make matters worse, the Cubs’ rotation has also fallen on tough times. Jon Lester, who posted a 2.44 ERA and won 19 games in 2016, currently has a 3.94 ERA and is 5-5.

In addition to Lester, Major League Baseball’s 2016 ERA champion Kyle Hendricks has been on the DL since early June. Hendricks is not the only Cubs’ starter on the disabled list right now. Brett Anderson and John Lackey are also currently on the shelf.

A combination of an underperforming offense, and a banged-up starting rotation has the Cubs unable to play at a high level.

Despite this inability, there are some Cubs’ players that have enjoyed success in the second half of the season. For this reason, all hope should not be lost on the 2017 Cubs.

Let’s dive into some numbers.

Bryant will get going in the second half

In order to get back on track and try to salvage the 2017 season, the Cubs need to score more runs. To do this, they will need Kris Bryant to get going. Bryant is currently slashing .268/.396/.529 with 18 home runs and only 38 RBI. While the .396 OBP is encouraging, Bryant’s low batting average and lackluster RBI total may be cause for concern.

Despite a disappointing first half, Bryant has had success in the second halves of seasons. In 2015, his rookie season, Bryant finished the first half slashing .269/.376/.472 with 12 home runs and 51 RBI. While Bryant’s OBP fell in the second half, his batting average shot up to .282, and he slugged .505 in 73 games. In addition to that, Bryant clubbed 14 home runs in the second half and recorded 17 doubles, three more than his first half total.

While Bryant only played in 69 games in the second half of the 2016 season, some numbers shown improvement. Going into the All-Star break last season, Bryant had a slash line of .286/.384/.578. While he slugged only .526 in the second half, Bryant hit .299 and got on base at a .385 clip.

These terrible show us that Bryant has been known to improve his play in the second half of seasons. For the Cubs, that is welcomed news.

Heyward likes to turn it up a notch in the second half

Jason Heyward was awful in 2016. So awful in fact that I vote we throw out the statistics completely. If we do that, we can see that Heyward is a good second half ball player. In 2014, with the Atlanta Braves, Heyward slashed a solid .255/.342/.375 before the All-Star break. After, however, Heyward caught fire. In 56 second half games, Heyward slashed .298/.368/.399.

Changing teams did not affect Heyward’s second half success. In 2015, now with the St. Louis Cardinals, Heyward hit over .300 in the second half of the season. That same season, Heyward recorded a .397 OBP in 69 games following the All-Star break.

As stated earlier, Heyward’s 2016 numbers serve as an outlier to the mean.

After enjoying much success the previous two seasons, Heyward’s 2016 second half numbers dropped off a cliff. The lefty slashed just .213/.270/.308 and hit three of his seven total home runs.

The fact that Heyward struggled so mightily in the second half of 2016 just means that he is due to break out in a big way this season.

Jon Lester seems to like the second half better as well

There is no doubt the Cubs need Jon Lester to start pitching like he did last season. Lester’s numbers suggest that his best baseball has yet to be played.

Lester signed a huge six-year, $155 million deal to join the Cubs in 2015. Despite his big contract, Lester struggled with his new team. In 18 first half starts, Lester went 4-8 with a 3.59 ERA in 110 1/3 innings pitched. To turn that rough start around, Lester went 7-4 after the All-Star break and posted a 3.04 ERA. In addition to his lower ERA, Lester improved his WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings and his strikeout-to-walk ratio in the second half of 2015.

As Lester settled into his new digs, his numbers improved. Proof of this can be seen in Lester’s 2016 first half numbers. In 18 starts, the lefty went 9-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 110 2/3 innings pitched. While those may be considered ace-like numbers, Lester took it to a different level post-All-Star break. Lester won 10 of his 14 starts while compiling a 1.76 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 92 innings pitched.

Lester also improved upon his opponent batting average in the second half of last year. He lowered it from a .226 mark in the first half, to a .192 clip in the second half.

If the Cubs are to make the postseason in 2017, they will need Lester to have an outstanding second half. There is definitely room for improvement, as Lester’s ERA sits just south of four, and his WHIP is 1.27.

PITTSBURGH, PA – JUNE 17: Jake Arrieta /

The Cubs could use a solid second half from Jake Arrieta, who has a record of good stretches post-All-Star Break.

The Chicago right-hander continues to battle. But, to mixed results. The Arrieta of 2015 seems to have gone into hiding. After winning the Cy Young award in 2015 and finishing ninth in the voting last season, Arrieta’s numbers have taken a turn for the worst.

In 17 starts, Arrieta has an ERA north of four, and a WHIP of 1.30. While Arrieta does have a better strikeout-to-walk ratio this year compared to last, he is allowing an average of two hits more per nine innings in 2017.

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Despite Arrieta’s struggles this season, there is cause to believe he can turn it around.

Arrieta’s Cy Young season of 2015 was full of masterful performances. Those performances culminated into a 10-5 first half for Arrieta. In addition to his winning record, Arrieta logged a 2.66 ERA and struck out 123 batters in 121 2/3 innings pitched. While many would have been happy with that level of play for the remainder of the season, Arrieta decided to step up his game in the second half of 2015.

In 15 starts, Arrieta posted a 12-1 record, a 0.75 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 107 1/3 innings pitched. It was that fantastic second half performance that won Arrieta the Cy Young award two years ago.

While no one expects a sub-one ERA for Arrieta in the second half of 2017, a solid showing would go a long way in helping the Cubs get back on their feet.

Good second half performances can get the Cubs back to the postseason

With all the talent on the Cubs’ roster right now, there is no way this team finishes below .500. To get things back on-track, these key players need to start trending upward. A strong second half could erase all memory of this disappointing start to the season.

There’s no reason to think this won’t happen, either. The players we mentioned all have a history of strong second half performances. For this reason, these players need to lead the second half charge in 2017.

Next: Chicago Cubs: This season is not uncommon among past winners

As the All-Star break looms, the Cubs find themselves in a position they did not expect to be in. Because of that, they will need to dig their way out of the hole they are in if they hope to repeat as World Series champions. These players above, as well as others on the Cubs’ roster will need to step up if they wish to succeed in the second half.

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