Chicago Cubs: walk-off loss presents Chapman’s value

Whether or not you agree with the Chicago Cubs acquiring all-star closer Aroldis Chapman, his immediate value became apparent as the White Sox walked-off with a win last night.

The Cubs need a go-to arm to anchor the bullpen and allow skipper Joe Maddon to wreak match-up havoc with the rest of the pitchers. Doing so would limit the opposition’s chances to score, and help the Cubs win close games.

At 12-16 in one-run games, the Cubs hold the second-worst record in the league behind Toronto (9-18) for teams with above a .550 win percentage. A contributor to this fact is the inconsistency of the bullpen, which the team addressed through trades.

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Mike Montgomery (3-5, 2.60 ERA) made his second appearance in the ninth inning and gave up the winning single to righty Tyler Saladino, scoring J.B Shuck from second. It’s a tough way to start out on a Contender, but like most of the bullpen, Montgomery pitched in a role he isn’t meant to fill.

Montgomery relies heavily on his off-speed pitches to get outs, making him a lefty-specialist in the bullpen. He’s better against lefties (.189/.250/.333) than righties (.242/.308/.356), though neither side hits him for hard contact.

Opposing batters are hitting sub .200 against his curveball, change-up, and cutter, but average .299/.458/.813 against his fastball. Montgomery lives in the strike zone, and batters swing for contact on 60% of his pitches. He gets ground balls on 60% of his pitches, making him a great choice for tough situations.

Current Cubs closer Hector Rondon (1-2, 1.95 ERA) suffers from the same split disparity. Rondon dominates righties (.136/.167/.214) more so than lefties (.220/.264/.347), even though both sides make hard contact equally well (32.55% combined). This season, he’s tied his blown saves and home run totals from last year in just over half the innings pitched, though he’s on pace to set a career-high in strikeouts and saves.

Pedro Strop (2-2, .287 ERA) is the next best closer behind Rondon because he has the highest K/9 (11.71), and total strikeouts (49) among qualified relievers on the team, though he is better suited for a set-up man role. He dominates hitters on both sides of the plate, though his control has been the only drawback.

Strop has his lowest BB/9 since rookie ball, but he’s also giving up the most HR/9 (.96) since his days in 2010 with the Texas Rangers (1.69). These stats don’t speak to the electric stuff Strop throws, which is the main reason Maddon trusts him in big situations.

Next: Aroldis Chapman deserves a second chance

This is why Theo Epstein traded away Gleyber Torres and three other players for Chapman—probably without batting an eye. Chapman isn’t have the same statistical year that he’s had in the past because he wasn’t the only arm the New York Yankees relied on to close games. With Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances alongside Chapman, the Yankees could afford to give Aroldis more days between outings to keep him fresh.

The Cubs will have the same luxury with Strop and Rondon pitching in front of Chapman. This season, Chapman is 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 20 saves in 21 opportunities. He has the highest K/9 among active closers in the MLB with 12.64 since Trevor Rosenthal was recently relieved of his closing duties.

Batters are hitting .179/.233/.286 against Chapman this year, and his fastball velocity is at the highest of his career, topping out at 105 MPH. By adding a player of Chapman’s caliber, the Cubs instantly improved their league-average bullpen to one comparable to any team in the top-5.