The Chicago Cubs, Joe Maddon and Sabermetrics

When Joe Maddon arrived at the Cubbie Bear for his introductory press conference as the new manager of the Chicago Cubs, it wasn’t just a different face at the helm. It was a new philosophy, a new way of thinking. You see, Maddon is a believer in sabermetrics.

If you aren’t sure what sabermetrics are, I’ll point you here for a more in-depth look. The crash course version? It’s about statistical analysis for almost every decision that is made by a manager. It’s not about gut feeling, or history or how it’s always been done. It’s about the numbers.

Now, much of what it is goes against the historical trends of baseball. What was considered “scripture” in the game has changed. Everyone knows your power hitter is fourth? Speed at the leadoff spot? Pitcher in the nine-hole? Nope. Not always in sabermetrics.

In Maddon’s time in Tampa Bay, the Rays didn’t always have the money to go out and get the specific piece that they needed. That’s not to say that he didn’t have talent there, but much of the success was calculated and measured through the art of sabermetrics. Scott McKinney wrote an article many years ago that was my “intro’ to the subject.

While it’s been four years, much of it still applies in the same fashion. Two things are what brought me to this. Base stealing, and the pitcher hitting in the eight spot. The latter because the Cubs haven’t historically been a very good base stealing team. And the pitcher in the eight spot? Isn’t that crazy? Tony La Russa did it a lot. He also won a lot.

When the Cubs acquired Dexter Fowler, many pointed out it wasn’t for his speed. But he’s more than capable, maybe the timing just wasn’t right. Sabermetrics is something that looks to address it. The timing of a steal is more important than the amount of them. A good throwing catcher with a quick-delivery pitcher will in most cases neutralize your speedsters chance of a steal. So it becomes more about when to use the steal, not just the particular player.

When McKinney wrote that piece, he pointed out the best stolen base percentages in 2010, alluding that five of the top seven had sabermetric heavy front offices. No. 3 was the Red Sox at 80%, the Rays right behind at No.4 with 78.5%. Pretty clear why I point those two out. Theo Epstein and Maddon.

Oct 25, 2011; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs new president of baseball operations Theo Epstein speaks during a press conference at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Giglio-US PRESSWIRE

Now, the pitcher in the eight spot. How do we feel about this? The statistical analysis of these is minimal, because not many have done it. A few teams over the years with good hitting pitchers have done so, but the sample is small. But in a sabermetric optimized lineup, the pitcher is in the eight spot. Your leadoff man? A good on-base guy, with speed being irrelevant.

Part of changing the thinking of the standard baseball lineup is somewhat simple. The lineup rarely turns over the same way in a game. So it makes more sense to focus on the statistical advantage in the moment, as compared to the historical “power hitter” in the cleanup spot.

Maddon will platoon, and he’ll likely do it everywhere. Not just in the few places we expect, like left field and third base. Because he loves his sabermetrics. One other spot you could see it is in pitching. Specifically in the “closer” role.

The Cubs have several options, including Hector Rondon who finished the year sold last year. They added Jason Motte, a former closer, and have Pedro Strop and Neil Ramirez who seem capable. But what if you’re rarely ahead in the eighth or ninth inning? You just don’t use your closer? No, you use him when he’s needed.

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For example, if you had a one-run lead in the ninth, your starter was trying for the complete game, but puts a man on. Generally the manager makes the call to his closer, correct? So why aren’t managers doing this in the sixth inning? Plenty of games are lost there, just as much in the ninth. This is why the addition of Motte will be a key.

Maddon will have options for elsewhere in the game, not just the ninth. When I was younger, it was the “Fireman Award”. Not just about closing the game, but as you can imagine, putting out “fires”, regardless of where at in the contest. The Cubs will have several places to turn for guys like this, which is why all of us as Cubs’ fans should embrace sabermetrics a little more this summer.

Next: Motte, Rondon options at Cubs' closer

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