Anthony Rizzo To The Cubs? An Inevitable Trade

One of the major hurdles blocking the Chicago Cubs from going all in on free agent first baseman Prince Fielder  has been the team’s unwillingness to give Fielder an eight or even ten year deal. There is no question that with Fielder’s stature, the first baseman is an ideal fit to be a designated hitter for an American League team. However, at 27, the Cubs could be willing to give Fielder a five or six year deal that would seem to cover the first baseman’s prime seasons. There will be more on the Cubs’ “pursuit” of Fielder later today, but, there is a chance that the Cubs make a trade that would preclude them from signing Fielder.

In case you missed it on Saturday, new San Diego Padres general manager Josh Byrnes–Theo Epstein’s first choice as general manager for the Cubs–made a trade that widely favored the Padres. The Padres and Cincinnati Reds completed a trade on Saturday that sent Padres’ starting pitcher Matt Latos to the Reds in exchange for first baseman Yonder Alonso, top catching prospect Yasmani Grandal, pitching prospect Brad Roxberger, and pitcher Edison Volquez. In addition to increasing Epstein’s asking price for starting pitcher Matt Garza, Saturday’s trade between the Reds and Padres may have cleared the way for the Cubs to acquire their long-term first base solution.

Before the Padres acquired Alonso, they figured to have their first base position filled for the long-term in the form of Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo is widely considered as the top prospect in the Padres’ farm system, and was in the top 100 of prospects in all of baseball. Rizzo was drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 amateur draft by Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, Jason McLeod and the Boston Red Sox. McLeod has long been a supporter of Rizzo. Which would be why it should come as no surprise that last season when the Padres’ traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, Rizzo was the key piece in the package being sent to San Diego. The bottom-line is that Epstein, Hoyer, and McLeod all have a mutual admiration for Rizzo, which is why the Cubs’ immediately placed a call to the Padres shortly after the team announced the Latos trade.

The plan for the Padres is to have Alonso be their long-term first baseman, meaning Rizzo’s path to the major league’s is now blocked for the foreseeable future. A likely scenario has the Padres putting Rizzo on the trading block and look to involve the first base prospect as part of a package for a larger trade. One trade could be a three team deal between the Cubs, Padres, and Rangers where Garza ends up with the Rangers, and the Cubs land Rizzo in addition to a couple of pitching prospects. Another scenario that has reportedly been discussed is one trade that will send Garza to the Padres with the Cubs receiving Rizzo, and second baseman Orlando Hudson. Bleacher Nation has been all over the Cubs’ pursuit of Rizzo, be sure to make that site a part of your daily reading. The Padres figure to have a difficult time fitting Garza’s escalating salary into their budget, which is why the Cubs may take on Hudson as a way to off-set the salary difference. I have a hard time believing that Garza is a Padre by the time Opening Day 2012 arrives, but, I think the chances are strong that Rizzo will be a part of the Cubs’ organization.

The Cubs are not going to compete for the World Series next season. The team may not even contend for a post-season spot in 2012. With all that in mind, it makes too much sense for the Cubs to label Rizzo as their primary target. At 22, Rizzo could transform into the Cubs’ version of Joey Votto. Rizzo tore the cover off the ball with the Padres’ triple A-affiliate, hitting at a clip of .331/.404/.652/1.056 with 26 home runs and 101 RBIs. Rizzo was a late-season call up for the Padres in 2011 and the up and coming first baseman struggled. Rizzo hit .141/.281/.242/.523 with the Padres in 128 at bats. Nonetheless, Rizzo still has a very high ceiling and is the type of player that Epstein and Hoyer would love to build around in addition to shortstop Starlin Castro.