The On-Again, Off-Again trade for Matt Garza appears to be back On

More Garza-to-Cubs Speculation

For one reason or another, the Chicago Cubs love to be involved in trade discussions regarding star players, however they almost never seem to pull a deal off. I do not think I need to remind anyone of the winter of Jake Peavy in 2009, or the winter of Brian Roberts before that. The thing I remember most about both of those rumored deals, is that the Chicago Cubs were always so close to completing the trades. Then, for whatever reason, the trade fell through at the last second.

Which brings us to this winter, one that is sure to be dubbed the winter of Matt Garza. On Wednesday night, it was as if the Chicago Cubs had already completed the trade for Matt Garza, as many people started penciling him into the Cubs rotation for 2011. I’ll admit that even I let my emotions get the best of me, and was getting excited for seeing Garza in a Cubs uniform. However, instead of hearing that a trade was completed on Thursday morning, we heard the opposite, that the Rays and Cubs met, but a trade seemed unlikely. But, that did not stop the rumors as reports suggested that the Cubs and Rays were still talking about a Garza trade as recent as last night. Now to add more fire to the rumor, Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse tweeted that the Rays will trade Garza this winter, and the team landing Garza will probably be the Cubs.

For the record, Ed Price is the first baseball insider that reported the Cubs serious interest in Brandon Webb, who according to some is their top target.So, I’m inclined to believe Ed Price about Garza being traded this winter. And, if that is true, then it will most likely be to the Cubs.

As of this point, the Chicago Cubs still have strongest bid in for Garza, and appear to be in a prime position to land him. It is believe that the Chicago Cubs are offering a package that includes Robinson Chirinos, a top shortstop prospect, and probably two pitching prospects. However, this is where things get a little bit sticky. According to Bleacher Nation, the Rays really like Andrew Cashner, Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, and Hak-Ju Lee. The Cubs have already stated that they are not trading Archer, or Jackson, and Cashner looks to be untouchable as well. But, I have a feeling that the Cubs may be willing to put Lee in the deal. So, that would probably bring the deal to Chirinos, Lee, and then two top pitching prospects.

I think the Rays really do want to trade Garza in order to save money, and I also feel the Cubs really do want to acquire Garza. Obviously the Cubs are not going to give up all the players that the Rays are interested in, and I do not think the Rays expect the Cubs to do so. But, if the Cubs throw in Lee, that may be what it takes to get the trade done. The Cubs are probably focused on trading for Garza, before they make any other moves.

In case you were wondering, the Texas trade that would send Robinson Chirinos and Rafael Dolis to the Rangers for Chris Davis and Darren O’day is still very much alive. Obviously, the Cubs are waiting to see if they are going to use Chirinos in the trade for Garza. Either way, there is a good chance that the Cubs will complete one of these trades within the next two weeks.

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Tags: Andrew Cashner Brandon Webb Brett Jackson Brian Roberts Chicago Cubs Chris Archer Chris Davis Darren O'day Hak Ju Lee Jake Peavy Matt Garza Rafael Dolis Robinson Chirinos Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers

  • Matt Weaver

    This is quickly becoming one of my favorite reads. I just bookmarked the Crib. Keep up the good job!

    • joehan

      Thanks Matt!

  • http://[email protected] eryk

    Hopefully the cubs aren’t that stupid to offer a package such as the one your hinting too.

    • Jordan Campbell

      Like I said the Cubs are not going to trade Cashner, Archer, or Brett Jackson. It is not know if they are willing to trade Hak-Ju Lee at this point. The only one who is a lock to be in this trade is Robinson Chirinos, other than that no-one knows.

  • Luke Blaize

    The Cubs operate under a microscope as one of the most followed teams in all baseball. On the internet, conversation equals confirmation. Just ask Bill Cosby how many times he’s died in the past decade. The result is that the more people talk about trades, such as Peavy or Garza, the more we become convinced they are inevitable.

    And then we forget to give credit to the Cubs for not pulling the trigger. A lot of those deals were just bad for the Cubs; I’m not convinced that Hendry was all that serious about some of them.

    The Texas trade sounds like a Hendry deal. The Garza trade doesn’t… yet. Right now, the Cubs are rumored to be giving up far too much for anyone on the Rays, including David Price himself. The Rays are asking for more than the Padres got for Gonzalez, and that’s just not happening.

    Cashner might be movable. I still think he’s a closer, not a starter. Marmol has the closer’s job sewn up for the Cubs, and I’d be happy keeping Marmol there for quite some time.

    Hak-ju Lee could be in this trade, but he would be the center piece if he is. Tampa would almost have to take at least one guy off the current 25 man roster. Coleman or Cashner could fit there, but so could Jeff Samardzija. He is still a very intriguing player for a lot of teams, including the Cubs. Don’t forget about him.

    • Jordan Campbell

      The thing that makes Jeff Samardzija hard to trade is the fact that he has a NTC. I mean, Samardzija is entering a contract year, and the Cubs still have high hopes for him. That is the problem as well, most teams over-evaluate their own talent. Obviously, like I mentioned the Chicago Cubs are not going to trade Cashner, B,Jackson, or Archer in any trade. I’ve even heard that Hendry is hesistant to give up Lee. To be honest, I fully expect the Texas trade to happen relatively soon.

    • joehan

      Excellent point Luke, by comparing what the Padres got for A Gonz. But hopefully the Rays don’t use Hendry’s desperation against him the way the Marlins did in the Juan Pierre trade.

  • tex

    Has anyone else heard that Chris Davis is struggling big time this winter in the Domenican? Do you think that has anything to do with this trade not happening?

  • tex

    Just looked up Chris Davis’s stats this winter.. 75 at bats and 21 strikeouts! That is a ton! Almost 1 strikeout per 3 at bats. His average isn’t as bad as you would think with that many strikeouts… 243 with 5 HR’s.

    • Luke Blaize

      21 SO / 75 AB = 28% strike out rate

      Thats a marked improvement over what he has done historically. His career average is darn near 35%. No one, not even Adam Dunn, should ever strike out that often. If the Cubs get him and he only strikes out 28% of the time, I’d be thrilled. His slugging percentage would just about be worth that level of strikeouts

  • ryan

    I don’t care what the cubs give up. Just get garza. Then come July make another trade. That’s the way big teams do it. Pull the trigger Jim. Get r done

    • joehan

      Ryan, I would agree with you if the Cubs were still spending like a big market team that they are. But with the budget being kept down for 2011 and who knows going forward, the Cubs will need to treat their prospects as frugally as they do their money.

      • ryan

        Sorry I should have said smart teams. Smart teams get a big trade and then come July they find the rest of what they were going to at the winter meetings. So far they needed a first, they got one. They said they wanted a first basemen, starter and a bullpin guy right. So you get Garza, now come July you the bullpin guy and what ever else you need. Now you filled the holes you had. So why not pull the trigger on Garza. He’s only going to bring in money for you. Then with the money your bringing in pay your players. PULL THE TRIGGER JIMMY!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • ddevonb

    I think so far there is no evidence of a desire to trade Garza. Their free agents losses have led to a much reduced payroll. Every indication is that the Rays want to keep Garza. This is a pursuit by the Cubs to get Garza. I believe to get Garza the Cubs will have to offer so much that Tampa Bay feels like they can’t turn down the deal. No such offer has been made… that’s why there’s no deal.
    As for a deal falling through at the last second, that implies that a deal was made and a player flunks his physical or something like that. that hasn’t been true in recent Cubs history. When there is never a deal in the first place, there is no deal to fall through.

  • Steve

    Honestly, when is the last time Hendry developed an elite prospect? Even Castro had a ton of errors last year, and Soto seems to be good but not great. Garza is a solid pitcher under team control for a few years, there is no reason the Cubs shouldn’t trade Archer or Cashner for him. I think Hendry wants to hold on to Archer so maybe that DeRosa trade doesnt look as bad as it really was; cleveland got a closer for him, and so far the Cubs got nothing.